The research team of the consulting firm 1816, recognized in the City for its prestige, has pointed out three recent data points that contradict the exchange rate management of Milei and Caputo. These data reinforce the theory of critics advocating for a jump in the official exchange rate. One of the data highlights that the current account of the balance of payments has accumulated seven consecutive months of deficits up to December, with a total negative of $7.5 billion during that period.
On one hand, economists like Domingo Cavallo argue that without an exchange rate correction, the situation will end negatively. On the other hand, economists like Ricardo Arriazu share the official perspective regarding the exchange front. There is a growing debate in the economic environment about the need for an exchange rate adjustment.
The demand for credit continues to rise, and according to the consulting firm PxQ, led by Emmanuel Álvarez Agis, the 'lag' of the exchange rate explains some current economic phenomena. Argentine spending abroad has reached historical levels, despite salaries in dollars not being at their maximum. The market expects the eventual removal of exchange controls this year.
The purchases of foreign currency by the BCRA in the official market were initially justified by payments for imports during the early months of Milei's management. A sharp jump in the exchange rate is not expected, according to officials like Javier Milei and Luis Caputo.
Dollar consumption through cards has reached record figures in January, with strong seasonality. Although part of the deficit is due to the 'blend' dollar scheme, which establishes a percentage of liquidations in the CCL market.
