This Monday, Argentina will make a debt payment to the International Monetary Fund for an amount of US$ 640 million. This action will significantly impact the reserves of the country's Central Bank, which are in constant decline despite the currency purchases made in January.
The disbursement corresponds to the first scheduled payment for the year 2025, out of a total of US$ 2.500 billion that will mature. These funds, along with the interest, are part of the program agreed upon by President Alberto Fernández in 2022 to settle a loan of US$ 44 billion obtained during Mauricio Macri's administration in 2018.
Currently, the Argentine government is in negotiations with the IMF to establish a new financial program. They aim to obtain around US$ 10 billion in additional funds. During a recent visit by the organization’s technicians, various alternatives were analyzed to maintain the economic stability of the country, including controlling inflation and ensuring fiscal sustainability.
The Central Bank closed January with gross reserves valued at US$ 28.3 billion, representing a decrease of more than US$ 2 billion due to various debt payments and operations in the currency market. As an additional measure, the monetary authority will reduce the monthly devaluation rate from 2% to 1%, which could contribute to a currency lag considering the projected inflation of 2%.
In the financial market, speculation is rife regarding the possibility that the Argentine government will manage to reach a two-stage agreement with the IMF, which could involve the lifting of currency controls and a potential devaluation after the upcoming legislative elections in October. The government's objective is to reach these elections with the lowest possible inflation rate to improve its chances of success and strengthen its position in Congress.
