The year 2025 started online with expectations, with greater resistance to significant increases and investment funds attentive to different signals to determine the direction of their liquidity. Among emerging markets, Brazil stands out for its recovery since the strong outflow of funds and the surge of the dollar that occurred in December.
However, the recent event related to DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, is not related to the US economy and does not affect expectations about the direction of rates by the Federal Reserve. In this context, the importance of the auction that the Treasury will carry out soon is highlighted.
Regarding the market outlook, Aurum Valores pointed out that "it is part of an argument that the market needed to take profits after more than substantial increases." It also emphasizes the relevance of the indicators showing excessive growth in the projections of technology companies, as highlighted in its report at the close of operations.
Javier Milei, at an event on International Holocaust Remembrance Day, expressed: "It was one of the greatest horrors in history."
In the financial sphere, dollar-denominated bonds remained almost in balance last week, with recommendations pointing to possible positive news, such as the improvement in Moody's rating, the potential higher liquidation of the agricultural sector due to lower withholdings, and the negotiation of a new agreement with the IMF. However, Argentine bonds fell by about 1% in a day marked by the impact of the Chinese startup DeepSeek.
Amid this scenario, the feeling in the market was the need to withstand the onslaught, in a landscape where sell orders were not motivated by local factors. Significant maturities were observed, and the Argentine government carried out an exchange of Duales TDE25 for Lecap at different terms, as part of its strategy to extend the maturities of the peso debt and de-index it.
Investors faced the crucial question of whether to maintain positions, increase them, or sell, in a context where Argentine bonds offered attractive rates, but the market was sensitive due to the accumulated gains from the previous year. Thus, a dilemma between prudence and boldness in investment decisions arose.
In short, in a scenario marked by various variables and movements in the market, resistance and careful decision-making became particularly relevant in the Argentine financial sphere.
