Inflation in March accelerated to 3.4% and accumulated an increase of 9.4% in the first quarter of the year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). Measured against March 2025, the Consumer Price Index (IPC) had a variation of 32.6%, slightly below February (33.1%). The division with the highest increase was Education, with 12.1%. Although it raised its estimates for the third month of the year (3%, 0.5 p.p. more). For Santiago Casas, chief economist at EcoAnalytics, the adjustment in regulated prices and the “lack” of a “nominal anchor” of monetary policy explain the acceleration of inflation: “The control of aggregates (M2) is ineffective with such an unstable demand for money, at the same time that there is no explicit rule for the interest rate. He also indicated that inflation “is a monetary phenomenon, and can accelerate due to an increase in the money supply, a fall in demand or a combination of both.” “As the lagged impact of the pre-electoral collapse in the demand for money last year loses strength, the fiscal and monetary order will allow inflation to continue its convergence to international levels,” he concluded. President Javier Milei also showed some displeasure: “We don't like this data and it's bad,” he affirmed on his networks. In all regions, the increase was greater than 5%: 5.1% (Patagonia), 6.9% (GBA), 7.1% (Pampeana), 7.2% (Northwest), 7.6% (Northeast) and 7.9% (Cuyo). According to the latest report from the Beef Promotion Institute (IPCVA), the different cuts of beef rose 10.6% during March, with the common picada (20.4%), common skirt steak (17.7%) and flank (13.4%) standing out. One by one, the increases in the divisions of March: Education: 12.1%. Transportation: 4.1%. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels: 3.7%. Recreation and culture: 3.6%. Restaurants and hotels: 3.4%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 3.4%. Clothing and footwear: 3.1%. Communication: 2.9%. Health: 2.6%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco: 2.1%. Miscellaneous goods and services: 1.7%. Household equipment and maintenance: 1.3%. The war in the Middle East complicates the government's goal of lowering inflation: what consulting firms estimate. The final figure released by INDEC surprised everyone, even the consulting firms that had forecast an inflation rate between 3% and 3.2%. “March's data is forceful, 3.4% marks an inflation that has not been falling for 10 months. In his post, the official argued the increase due to the war in the Middle East and the “process of relative price correction” that the economy continues to go through. The result is the “disorientation of inflationary expectations.” Caputo's explanation. Luis Caputo, Minister of Economy, was one of the first to react to March's inflation. However, he showed optimism and expects that “in the future it will return to its decreasing path.” He added, furthermore, that he will discuss the issue at the closing of the Summit 2026 of the Chamber of Commerce of the United States in Argentina (AmCham). However, it is necessary to distinguish the incidence of external factors on monetary policy (of a transitory nature) from the component directly related to the dynamics between the supply and demand of pesos,” said Julián Neufeld, Economist of the Foundation for Liberty and Progress. In this case, the consulting firm had estimated an inflation of 2.9%, the same as in January and February. There is also no commitment to the exchange rate, which floats within the exchange rate bands and well below the ceiling.
