The military escalation in the Middle East has directly hit one of the most sensitive points for the Argentine economy: the cost of gas it will need to import to get through the winter. The blow to the gas market, following Iranian attacks on key facilities in Qatar and the worsening risk to regional supply, has already begun to affect inflation forecasts, central bank decisions, and growth prospects for the Eurozone. Iranian attacks against the Ras Laffan gas complex in Qatar caused a global shock in the LNG market and pushed reference prices in Europe higher, just as Argentina is set to define its seasonal coverage. In this context, the fear is not just a one-time tariff hike, but a more persistent rise in energy costs that eventually filters into wages, food, logistics, and industry, just as several economies on the continent are still struggling to gain momentum. Politically, European leaders arrived at the Brussels summit calling for an end to the war and a rapid de-escalation. This price increase is particularly important for Argentina, as the TTF serves as a central benchmark for valuing the LNG that eventually arrives in tankers to the local system. In Argentine terms, the news comes at the worst possible moment. On March 4, 2026, Energía Argentina launched a national and international public tender to select a private commercial agent-aggregator to be responsible for importing LNG and selling it as regasified gas in the domestic market during the winter period, using the Escobar terminal. The European Central Bank kept its rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday but revised its inflation forecast for 2026 sharply upwards, raising it to 2.6% from the 1.9% projected in December. The price of European gas on the TTF market doubled from the start of the war on February 28 and reached 74 euros per MWh on March 19, while Brent oil was also trading at levels well above pre-conflict levels. The crux of the problem lies in Ras Laffan, Qatar's major LNG export hub, whose capacity was affected by the Iranian offensive. Although higher oil prices can bring more foreign currency from crude exports, the gas market is much more rigid and vulnerable than the oil market. Reuters highlighted that Norway and the United States, two key suppliers to Europe, are already operating near capacity and cannot quickly compensate for the gap left by Qatar. On the other hand, it reduces the central banks' room for maneuver, which can no longer focus only on growth weakness, as they once again face an imported inflationary surge. In other words: Vaca Muerta eased the bill, but it has not yet shielded Argentina from a global geopolitical shock. The final impact on the pocketbook will depend on a central political decision. The difference is that it comes with less political leeway, with still-weak economies and central banks forced to walk an ever-narrower tightrope. The signal is clear: for Europe, this war has ceased to be a distant problem. Within this framework, Spain appears better positioned than many of its partners to absorb the blow, mainly due to the greater weight of renewables in its electricity matrix. If the government decides to absorb most of the international jump through subsidies, the cost will fall more on public accounts and the need for foreign currency. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized the negative effect that energy prices are already having on the European economy, while French President Emmanuel Macron called for a moratorium on attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets. Now, with the international market much more tense, any winter planning starts from a much higher cost base. The paradox is that the country had managed to reduce its external dependence thanks to local infrastructure. Reuters reported that the expansion of the Perito Moreno trunk pipeline aims to add 14 million cubic meters per day to a capacity that was already around 26 million, precisely to reduce expensive imports and improve the energy balance. The dilemma is especially awkward for an administration seeking to maintain fiscal balance but at the same time avoid a new energy shock further complicating the deceleration of prices. According to Reuters, the damage forces around 17% of Qatar's export capacity out of service for an estimated period of three to five years, a figure that helps understand why the market reacted so violently. Qatar is a central player in the global liquefied natural gas trade, and any serious disruption to its supply immediately affects Europe, even if the continent does not depend exclusively on that source. This energy price increase has already begun to alter the monetary landscape. This forces a tougher competition for available shipments and leaves seasonal buyers, like Argentina, in a more delicate position compared to countries with greater purchasing power. The result, then, is unsettling. The war not only shook the military map of the Gulf; it also made one of the most sensitive winter ingredients for Argentina more expensive. Sooner or later, it also ends up in public accounts, the energy balance, and the pockets of Argentines. The Bank of England decided to keep the rate at 3.75% but warned that British inflation could rise to 3.5% in the coming quarters if the energy shock persists. In 2024, Argentina had also reduced its imports to 1.5 million tons, the lowest level since 2019, thanks to increased domestic supply from Vaca Muerta and improved internal transport. Although the rise in international gas also affects this, the impact on electricity is relatively more contained because a larger proportion of its generation depends on wind, hydro, and other sources not directly tied to gas. The effect is direct: the imported gas will be much more expensive, and the underlying discussion is again raised between subsidies, tariffs, and fiscal pressure. The external blow is not minor. Qatar Energy reported that the attacks damaged two of its fourteen liquefaction trains and a gas-to-liquids plant, which will take about 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity out of service for between three and five years. On the one hand, higher gas and oil prices hit households, companies, and transportation. Europe has once again entered a zone of economic unease due to the new energy shock derived from the war in the Middle East. This tension is not theoretical: the rise in LNG prices coincides with a moment when the cost of energy has once again become a first-order macroeconomic variable. There is also a broader reading. And although the country has advanced in local production and transportation from Vaca Muerta, the residual dependence on LNG again exposes it to an uncomfortable truth: when Ras Laffan burns, the impact does not stay in Qatar. The head of EU diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, warned that Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar create more chaos and called for avoiding a greater spiral. The common pattern is evident: energy is once again the factor conditioning European monetary policy. The problem for Europe is double. This differential does not make it immune to the shock, but it does give it a partial shield against a scenario that more harshly punishes systems more dependent on imported fossil fuels. It also corrected the calculation for 2027 to 2.0% and lowered its growth estimate for the Eurozone for 2026 to 0.9%, from the previous 1.2%. This is a significant change from the scheme that prevailed in previous years, because the state now delegates the purchase and commercialization to a private operator, although the physical need for the fuel remains. The immediate precedent helps measure vulnerability. The official explanation was direct: the war and the rise in energy force a recalculation of both prices and activity. The situation is not limited to the euro bloc. The continent had already gone through something similar after the Russian invasion of Ukraine; now, with the new focus of instability in the Gulf, it faces the same dilemma again. But those works do not completely eliminate the need to buy LNG in winter, especially when residential demand peaks and thermal generation require reinforcing the system. In 2025, Enarsa had closed the purchase of 22 LNG cargoes for approximately US$ 567.5 million, as reported by GIIGNL.
