Buenos Aires, March 5 (NA) — Analysts have adjusted their projections for the dollar and inflation in the Market Expectations Survey (REM) published by the Central Bank (BCRA). The REM disseminates the results of the survey conducted between February 25 and 27, involving 46 participants, including 34 local and international consulting firms and research centers, and 12 Argentine financial entities, according to the Argentine News Agency. Inflation. Analysts estimated that the cost of living would be lower than in January, which was 2.9%, and that the 2% barrier would only be broken in May. The same figure is repeated for the fourth quarter of 2026, arguing that there will be no major changes in unemployment. Foreign Trade: Exports are expected to reach US$92.737 billion (+US$852 million from the previous survey) and imports US$80.204 billion (-US$506 million from the previous REM). GDP: for the fourth quarter of 2025, it would have grown 0.8% compared to the third quarter (+0.6 pp compared to the previous REM), while for core inflation it would be 2.5% (+0.4 pp). The expected annual trade surplus is US$12.533 million (+US$1.358 million from the last projection). For the first and second quarters of the year, growth would be 1% (+0.1 pp) and 0.9% (-0.1 pp) respectively. Unemployment Rate: for the fourth quarter of last year it would be at 6.7% of the Economically Active Population, without changes compared to the last REM. For the rest of the months, a bearish path is forecast and annual inflation would be 26.1%. The inflation would break the 2% barrier starting in May. The February IPC would be 2.7% (+0.6 pp compared to the previous REM).
