Argentinian Market Expects Slower Disinflation and Stable Dollar

Buenos Aires - March 5, 2026 - Total News Agency - The new Market Expectations Survey (REM) released by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) presented a clear snapshot of the economic conversation in the City: analysts raised their short-term inflation forecasts while cutting the expected pace of increase in the wholesale exchange rate. Compared to the previous survey, expected exports rose and imports fell, a combination that improves the trade balance and, with it, the ability to navigate the year with less pressure on external accounts. Read as a whole, the REM draws a conclusion that needs no technical jargon: the market sees a 2026 with disinflation, but slower; and with a dollar that, in the central scenario, rises less than prices. In simple terms, the market put a name and number to what many operators had already been commenting on: if the scheme holds, the dollar would move 'slowly' and prices would continue to run ahead, with a direct impact on the debate about competitiveness, imports, costs, and margins. The correction from the previous survey is also eloquent. With that background, the 2.7% for February looks like a 'slowdown, but not a stop' that forces recalibration of forecasts. In the annual movie, the REM shows a downward path forward, though without magic: the consensus of participants projected an inflation of 26.1% for 2026. The result is a scenario of slower disinflation than imagined a month ago, but with an official dollar moving below prices, something that reinforces the idea of a 'exchange rate anchor' in the government's macro strategy. The survey —conducted between February 25 and 27 and prepared based on the responses of 46 participants, including consultancies, research centers, and financial entities— projects that the CPI for February would have stood at 2.7%, a correction of +0.6 percentage points from the previous REM. Analysts cut the expected increases in the wholesale exchange rate: 73 pesos less for March and 43 pesos less for the end of the year. That number, besides marking a high step for the first part of the year, reinforced the market's sensitivity to regulated prices, tariffs, and some food items, a combination that usually contaminates expectations even when monetary policy seeks to maintain the disinflation path. And for December 2026, it projected $1,707 per dollar. The official data from INDEC for the first month of the year was 2.9% monthly, with a year-on-year variation of 32.4%. In employment, the forecast maintained a stability that says a lot about the prudence of consultancies: the unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 was estimated at 6.7% of the EAP, and the same 6.7% repeats as the expectation for the fourth quarter of 2026. On the external front, the survey painted a still robust trade surplus. For activity, participants estimated that the GDP of the fourth quarter of 2025 would have grown 0.8% compared to the third quarter, and for 2026, they projected a start with expansion: 1.0% for the first quarter and 0.9% for the second, always in deseasonalized terms. The political reading is that the market continues to see disinflation, but does not blindly buy a scenario of rapid and linear decline; the financial reading is that the process will be very conditioned by decisions on regulated prices, tariffs, fuels, wages, and especially by the balance between activity and exchange rate. Precisely, the dollar chapter was the one that provided the strongest contrast. For the reference wholesale exchange rate, the set of participants estimated a quotation of $1,429 for the March average. Buenos Aires-5 de Marzo de 2026-Total News Agency-TNA– El nuevo Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) difundido por el Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) dejó una postal nítida de la conversación económica en la City: los analistas ajustaron al alza sus previsiones de inflación para el corto plazo, mientras recortaron el ritmo esperado de suba del tipo de cambio mayorista. Ese recorte suele interpretarse como una combinación de factores: confianza en que el BCRA y el equipo económico sostendrán el esquema de administración del tipo de cambio; expectativa de que la oferta de divisas y los flujos financieros den aire en el corto plazo; y, al mismo tiempo, una señal de que el mercado considera más probable una continuidad del “crawling” suave que una aceleración cambiaria. El REM también sumó un set de proyecciones macro que ayudan a completar el cuadro. En criollo: el mercado reconoce una desaceleración frente a enero, pero advierte que el descenso será más trabajoso de lo previsto y que el “dos adelante” no se perforaría, recién, en los meses siguientes. La referencia a enero no es menor. Para la inflación núcleo, el conjunto de participantes ubicó su estimación en 2,5% (+0,4 p.p.). En el medio, el Gobierno juega su apuesta principal: sostener la desaceleración sin que se rompa el delicado equilibrio entre actividad, consumo, empleo y estabilidad financiera. Para 2026, el mercado proyectó exportaciones (FOB) por US$92.737 millones e importaciones (CIF) por US$80.204 millones, lo que arroja un superávit de US$12.533 millones. Ese “dólar atrás” puede ayudar a anclar expectativas en el corto plazo, pero también abre discusiones inevitables sobre atrasos relativos, competitividad, comportamiento de importaciones y la sostenibilidad del esquema si los precios regulados vuelven a empujar el índice. La cuenta implícita es relevante: esa trayectoria supone una variación interanual esperada de 17,9%, claramente por debajo de la inflación anual proyectada.