The US bank JPMorgan evaluated that the reforms driven by the Javier Milei administration are accelerating the path for Argentina to regain its 'Emerging Market' status in the MSCI classification. A reclassification, if it materializes, could enable the entry of passive funds amounting to approximately US$ 2.3 billion.
This trajectory, marked by episodes of volatility in the rules of the game and access restrictions, fuels a structural caution that forces investors to closely monitor the political climate and indicators of macroeconomic and regulatory stability.
In parallel, the debate over reclassification revives a strategic discussion: returning to emerging markets does not by itself guarantee an 'investment boom,' but it can act as a seal of validation for the market, expand the universe of buyers, and improve the positioning of local assets against global benchmarks.
The diagnosis is part of a report from the entity's research team, which stated that the process of returning from the 'Standalone' market status would have been dynamized by market-friendly measures adopted since December 2023.
According to the analysis, an eventual change in category would have an immediate effect on the investment universe available to the country: by leaving 'Standalone,' Argentina could again become eligible for a portion of global institutional funds that currently have formal restrictions to invest in markets with low accessibility or operational limitations.
The limitation of information in English was also mentioned as an obstacle that, while it may seem minor, weighs on transparency standards for the global investment community.
Regarding timelines, JPMorgan placed the earliest window for reclassification between 2027 and 2028, although it emphasized that the calendar is not automatic: the MSCI process is usually rigorous and develops through consultations that can extend for about two years.
In this scenario, JPMorgan projected that reclassification to an Emerging Market would open the door to estimated net passive inflows of US$ 2.3 billion, linked to portfolios that replicate global indices and, by mandate, must rebalance positions when the universe of countries changes.
The report also identified the local companies that, due to their liquidity, volume, and market presence, could capture most of this new flow. According to the bank's reading, the main beneficiaries would be YPF, Grupo Financiero Galicia, Banco Macro, Vista Energy, Transportadora de Gas del Sur, and Pampa Energía—firms that would be 'well-positioned' to absorb the additional flow and improve their profile with external investors.
Following that logic, even if the index provider were to decide in 2026 to initiate a formal consultation to evaluate a status change, the outcome could only arrive in 2027 or 2028, always conditioned by evidence of lasting improvements.
The report focused on a sensitive point: the continuity of policies beyond the 2027 presidential elections.
