Economy Politics Local 2026-02-03T17:01:05+00:00

Economist calls government's CPI decision a mistake

Economist Juan Luis Bour criticized the Argentine government's decision to postpone the CPI update, calling it a mistake. He forecasts inflation will reach 24% this year, not 10% as stated in the budget. He also commented on currency control issues and economic competitiveness.


Economist calls government's CPI decision a mistake

Economist and president of the FIEL Foundation, Juan Luis Bour, called the government's decision to postpone the update of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) a 'mistake in economic policy' and stated that the dollar is lagging. In an interview with the 'Esta MaƱana' program on Radio Rivadavia, Bour considered that the government's decision only 'magnifies' a technical problem that has no real relevance to the dynamics of prices or market expectations. In this context, he pointed out that 'the inflation for the year is not going to be 10% as the government put in the budget' and detailed that 'with the current index, we have an estimate that this year it will be around 24%'. With that projection, he reinforced his position that the discussion about which index to use is secondary by stating that 'if with the new index it gives 25%, there is no change from an economic point of view or in expectations', maintaining that having postponed the implementation of the new measurement 'is a mistake in economic policy'. On the exchange rate front, Bour considered that using the exchange rate as an inflation anchor is a strategy that is exhausted when he said they started 'slowing down the exchange rate so that inflation is lower and it didn't serve because everyone realizes that there is an exchange rate lag', although he avoided specifying the exact magnitude of that gap. Regarding the lifting of restrictions, the economist warned that the exchange rate clamp remains in force for the business sector and its total elimination will not be immediate 'because you are still weak'. Regarding the path to be taken to lift the restrictions governing exchange operations, he stated: 'It's not easy, it will take a long time to normalize the foreign exchange market and put the playing field more on a level footing'. Along the same lines, he emphasized: 'Achieving positive reserves at the Central Bank (BCRA) is not achieved in two months but in 5 to 8 years. It's a long road'. In relation to the competitive plane of the economy with a focus on tax cuts, Bour expressed: 'The business sector is adapting in sectors that have the backing to make the reconversion' and referenced that 'the automotive sector is being reconverted because they have to compete with imported cars and export'.