Various private surveys agree that January inflation will be above 2%, again driven by increases in food and beverages, which fail to break through a floor despite macroeconomic and exchange rate stability. According to what Noticias Argentinas agency learned, recent reports detected an acceleration in prices towards the end of the month, concentrated in fresh products and goods with inelastic demand. Although there were factors that helped moderate the index—such as seasonal declines in some vegetables, soft adjustments in dairy products, and stability in regulated prices like fuels—the weight of fresh food was decisive.
The February scenario will bring a key technical novelty: INDEC will begin measuring inflation with a new basket of goods and services. This update, adjusted to more recent consumption habits, will give greater weight to services and reduce the relative incidence of food, which could modify the statistical reading of inflation in the coming months.
Although there were no abrupt jumps, the constant 'drip' in prices on shelves, especially in meats, vegetables, and oils, was enough to maintain pressure on the Consumer Price Index (IPC).
The dance of numbers: what the consultancies say. Private projections show a consensus around 2.5%, with nuances depending on the methodology: Econviews: Projected the highest increase, at 2.8%. LCG: Estimated 2.5%, highlighting the impact of rising meat prices. Almaceneros de Córdoba: Calculated a variation between 2.4% and 2.5%. Equilibra: Placed the index at 2.2%. IPC Online Bahía Blanca: Was the most optimistic, with a figure close to 1.9%.
Hard cores and basket change. The phenomenon responds to an inflation that 'preserves hard cores' in the basic basket.
