The postponement of motherhood, economic crises, and social changes are generating population aging that impacts the pension and educational systems. This is being reflected in a reduction in the average number of students per section in private kindergartens, which dropped from 23 in 2011 to 18.8 today, with projections of a decline of over 25% in school demand between 2023 and 2027 in the City of Buenos Aires (CABA). Teacher unions are denouncing the possible disappearance of hundreds of grades for the next school year, according to material received by the Argentine News Agency. The general secretary of Ademys, Soledad Mosquera, warned: “Low birth rates exist, it is a phenomenon that is not only happening in our country, but worldwide. It impacts the entire Argentine educational system.” She added that, in that sense, the Milei government's response at the national level is to use it as an excuse to implement an austerity plan. “What they do is close grades, they call it fusion, but it is actually a closure of grades that will be implemented starting in 2026. We have calculated -because there are no official figures- around 400 grades that the Government is going to close between initial, primary, and secondary levels.” From diapers for children to adults for seniors It is calculated that for every 100 children there are already 60 seniors over 60 years old, to the point that there are diaper companies that have migrated production from those for children to those for adults. The decrease in the birth rate is recorded in all ages, from the fall in adolescent pregnancies to the postponement or renunciation of the project of motherhood or fatherhood. This is because the birth rate has decreased by more than 36% since 2014, with less than 500,000 births registered in recent years, deepening in 2025. There are 10 births per 1,000 inhabitants, which in the school field means fewer infants to enroll in kindergartens and the shrinking or disappearance of specialized institutes. Such is the case that the drop in enrollments, especially sharp in the City of Buenos Aires (44% reduction in births), is causing the unification of divisions and the closure of sections. The result is a strong decrease in enrollment in the initial level (up to 35% fewer enrollments in 2025 in some areas) and the prospects that project a reduction in adolescent pregnancies, which went from 33.7 to 6.4 per thousand women between 2011 and 2023. Population pyramid This is a broader trend within the Southern Cone, where births are not managing to balance the population pyramid. The countries with the greatest crisis in the region are Uruguay, then Chile, and in third place comes Argentina. In the Province of Buenos Aires, in 2025, 121,303 births were recorded, which contrasted with 134,131 deaths, meaning deaths exceeded births, and fertility remains below the replacement level. It is not an isolated issue. Europe and East Asia, mainly, present a negative natural balance (more deaths than births). France reported this phenomenon in 2025 for the first time since 1944. Other examples include Japan, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, and parts of Eastern Europe, due to aging and low birth rates. The Uruguayan case, however, appears as the most critical, because it has a higher mortality rate than the birth rate, which implies that new generations are reduced and the elderly population increases. In that scenario, Argentina is already going through a similar process, although at an earlier stage. Kindergartens Kindergartens (initial levels) have been feeling the downturn since 2018. Cases of very low enrollment are observed. Institutions are seeking to restructure, which includes the possibility of improving teaching conditions with fewer students per teacher, but also the closure of establishments. With the current fertility rate of 1.5, below the replacement rate of 2.1, everything seems to indicate a trend that will deepen and affect primary levels in the coming years. Official statistics reveal that, in less than a decade, annual births in the federal district -one of the jurisdictions with the greatest setback in birth rates- dropped from 43,716 to 24,690. This reduction, close to 44%, explains the drop in school enrollments. Faced with this scenario, authorities expect the trend to deepen in the coming years, forcing them to take measures such as the unification of divisions in schools and even the closure of establishments. For now, it is in the initial education levels where fewer and fewer students are observed, but specialists warn that it is only a matter of time before the trend affects higher levels. In CABA, the fertility rate registers historical lows, dropping from an index of 1.9 in 2010 to 0.9 today. In the national context, the City is among the jurisdictions with the greatest setback in birth rates, only surpassed by the provinces of Tierra del Fuego and Jujuy. The initial level, which for the 2025 cycle registered a 35% decrease in enrollments compared to 2019, and in primary schools, first-grade enrollment showed a 25% drop compared to 2020 data. From the Buenos Aires City Ministry of Education, they are already working on an administrative reorganization. Although the minimum to open a course is 15 students, they have decided to reduce that requirement to 10 students in an attempt to preserve the opening of the grades.
