Mediterránea Foundation estimated that inflation for 2026 will be in a range of between 18% and 30%, according to three scenarios based on the economic assumptions presented by the Central Bank. Scenario 1: Our base remonetization scenario projects an increase of 0.6 percentage points in the Monetary Base/GDP ratio, in line with the target communicated by the monetary authority. This increase in the demand for pesos would allow the Central Bank to accumulate reserves of approximately US$ 6.5 billion and would imply an annual inflation rate towards December 2026 of around 23%. Scenario 2: In an optimistic scenario, where money demand exceeds initial expectations to reach 5.4% of GDP (which translates into a rise of 1 point from the late 2025 figure), peak inflation converges towards an 18%/19% annual rate. Under this assumption, the monetary base would expand from the current 4.4% to 5.0% of GDP by December 2026. This figure underscores the aforementioned premise: to sustain the disinflation path, our monetary authority will have to calibrate its interventions, either by slowing the pace of reserve accumulation or resorting to sterilization mechanisms to absorb any excess supply of pesos. Scenario 3: Conversely, in a pessimistic scenario where the demand for the monetary base grows by only 0.3 percentage points of GDP, inflation would remain at levels close to 30% annually, with a Central Bank capable of acquiring around US$ 4.5 billion. In any of the aforementioned scenarios, inflation for this year is estimated to be lower than that of 2025 and substantially lower than that of previous years, consolidating the disinflation process.
