The financial market is already assessing the impact of the new exchange rate regime that will govern in 2026, where the adjustment of the floating bands will cease to be fixed and will depend directly on the evolution of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
According to a report by the consulting firm GMA Capital, projected inflation will be the determining variable to establish the "ceiling" of the official dollar. As learned by the Argentine News Agency (NA), the analysis outlines three possible scenarios for the end of next year, based on data from the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) and the Market Expectations Survey (REM).
The three scenarios for the official dollar in 2026:
Base Scenario (Inflation ≈ 24%): This is the most likely path. Without a faster disinflation, the band scheme will continue to shift upwards, setting ever-higher ceilings for the foreign currency. The upper band would start January at $1,565, would surpass $1,700 mid-year, and would end December 2026 at around $1,915.
Pessimistic Scenario (Inflation ≈ 30%): In the case of a slower disinflation, the exchange rate ceiling would suffer a greater shift, approaching $2,000 towards the end of the period.
Optimistic Scenario (Inflation ≈ 19%): Under a sharp drop in prices, the official dollar would find a lower ceiling, ending the year at approximately $1,843.
Comparison with the previous scheme
The consulting firm highlights the gap that will be generated with respect to the previous scheme of 1% monthly adjustments. By the end of 2026, the difference between the "old band" ($1,720) and the new band in the base scenario ($1,915) would be $195.
The analysts' conclusion is clear: nominality rules.
