BUENOS AIRES, December 4, 2025 – Total News Agency (TNA) – Argentina's Social Debt Observatory (ODSA) of the Catholic University of Argentina (UCA) reported that income-based poverty reached 36.3% in the third quarter of 2025, a decrease of 9.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and 8.4 points compared to levels recorded before the assumption of Javier Milei. The report states that while the figures show a "relative improvement" over the deterioration of 2024, poverty remains anchored at historically high levels and exhibits a structural behavior that is difficult to reverse without profound transformations in the labor market and employment conditions. UCA emphasizes that in the last two decades, monetary poverty never broke the structural floor of 25%, even in contexts of economic expansion, while indigence remained around 5%. According to the report, a third of the Argentine population remains trapped in conditions of persistent vulnerability, with a strong dependence on public transfers and informal or subsistence jobs.
The report also compared its estimates with official data: INDEC would have projected a poverty rate for the second quarter of 2025 close to 31.8%, which would imply a drop of 9.5 points from 2023. Poverty remains high, and historically vulnerable sectors continue to be trapped in a circle of informality, low incomes, and state dependence. "These relative improvements are due, in part, to the stabilization of inflation and the reinforcement of social transfers, but they do not imply a structural change," the final report indicates. Meanwhile, indigence fell to 6.8%, according to the latest measurement released by the academic institution. The data were prepared from the Argentine Social Debt Survey (EDSA) and matched with the Permanent Household Survey (EPH-INDEC), covering series from 2010 to 2025. However, UCA warns of a bias due to under-registration of income in the EPH, which tends to show a greater decline than real. Correcting this methodological lag, the actual decline in monetary poverty would be only 2.1 percentage points, and the corrected rate would be around 35%. According to UCA, three-quarters of the official decline could be explained by a statistical effect, rather than a substantial improvement in the real incomes of households.
Poverty hits harder in households with children and adolescents. The 2025 measurement shows: 48.8% poverty in households with children. 10.8% in households without children. The report warns that this gap has not reduced significantly despite social transfers and the deceleration of inflation recorded in recent months. Chronic poverty: a hard core that does not move. UCA determined that 27.6% of the population was poor continuously between 2024 and 2025, which evidences a persistence of deprivations difficult to reverse in the short term. In the lowest socioeconomic strata, the situation is much more severe: 60.9% of the "Very Low" level remained in chronic poverty, a figure that demonstrates the depth of structural exclusion.
The report incorporates direct indicators of social deprivations: 46.8% of the population declares living under economic stress. In low sectors, 7 out of 10 households cannot cover basic expenses. 18.7% of households suffer from total food insecurity and 7.8% from severe insecurity. In the "Very Low" stratum, food insecurity peaks above 40%. UCA also surveyed the emotional impact of economic deterioration: psychological discomfort affects 37.7% of people in very low socioeconomic levels, double that of higher-income sectors.
The study simulated scenarios without assistance programs: Indigence would double and reach 12.8%. Poverty would grow by about 20%, standing at around 41.8%. Even so, UCA insists that these policies do not compensate for the weakness of the labor market or the precariousness affecting broad segments of the population. A statistical relief, without solving the root of the problem.
The body concludes that, despite the drop in monetary indicators recorded in 2025, no structural change is observed in the inequality matrix.
