The Federal Tax Sharing Commission of the Senate of the Nation revealed that transfers to provinces and CABA increased in real terms for the first time in several months, while national revenue showed mixed signals with a decline in foreign trade. Transfers of national resources to the Argentine provinces and Buenos Aires reached $5.485 trillion in October 2025, representing a 7.7% monthly increase compared to September. After adjusting for inflation during the period (31.31% year-on-year), transfers showed a real increase of 0.9%, marking a turning point after several months of declines in adjusted terms. Of the total distributed, the 23 provinces received $5.365 trillion, a 7.7% increase from the previous month. This is the fourth consecutive month with positive year-on-year variations for this key indicator of fiscal federalism. Buenos Aires led the distribution with $1.247 trillion (22.74% of the total), followed by Santa Fe with $469.684 billion (8.56%) and Córdoba with $457.396 billion (8.34%). After corresponding legal deductions, the primary distribution allocated 57.36% to provinces, 1.40% to CABA, and 41.24% remained for the National Treasury, including 1% for the ATN Fund (National Treasury Contributions). The Senate report revealed marked disparities in the per capita distribution of resources. The foreign trade sector showed the greatest weakness, with revenue of $1.057 trillion, representing a 17.3% monthly decrease (-19.1% in real terms). Within this amount, federal sharing—the main distribution regime—amounted to $4.897 trillion, registering an 8.2% monthly increase. The year-on-year comparison showed that federal sharing grew by 33.25% in nominal terms, which translated into a real improvement of 1.5% after deducting accumulated inflation. Dividing the total transfers by the population of the last census, the national average was $119,521 per inhabitant. Tierra del Fuego topped the list with $342,511 per capita, followed by Catamarca with $324,886. These provinces depend almost exclusively on sharing to finance their state structures. At the opposite end, CABA showed only 9.7% dependence, Neuquén 18.3% (benefiting from hydrocarbon royalties), Chubut 40.3%, Buenos Aires 46%, and Santa Cruz 46.6%. For the rest of the jurisdictions, the share of transfers exceeded 50% of their total income, confirming that more than half of the Argentine provinces depend mainly on sharing resources to sustain their finances. On one hand, the recovery of transfers in real terms and the strong performance of Income Tax and VAT provide relief to provincial coffers after months of adjustment. On the other hand, the decline in foreign trade, the persistence of deep territorial asymmetries, and the failure to comply with the constitutional mandate to enact a new sharing law maintain structural uncertainty about the system. The extreme dependence of more than half of the provinces on national transfers limits their fiscal autonomy and exposes them to the volatility of national revenue, determined by macroeconomic variables that are beyond the control of subnational jurisdictions.
