Buenos Aires, December 2 (NA) – The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has adjusted its projections and forecast a lower growth for Argentina in 2026, with a 3% improvement in economic activity and higher inflation, with an annual variation of 17.6%.
The organization's forecasts imply a worsening of the projections drawn up in the last report in September, when it expected a GDP advance of 4.3% and the inflation estimate was 16.5%, according to the Argentine News Agency.
In this way, the new report reflects a decrease in economic growth of 1.3 percentage points below what was expected in September and an inflation of 1.1 percentage points above the previous forecast, which shows a new acceleration.
When comparing the calculations with the Government's projections, outlined in the 2026 Budget Bill, differences are observed, as the numbers presented by the ruling party are more optimistic, projecting that GDP will grow by 5% in 2026 and inflation will reach 10%.
Regarding the shared prospects for the current calendar, the organization also expects the country to end the year with a lower growth in activity, estimating an advance of 4.2%, compared to the previously forecast 4.5%, and with a greater price variation, calculating a rise of 41.7% compared to the 39.8% projected in September.
Referring to the engines that will support the improvement of the country's economic activity during 2026, the OECD indicated that “growth will be driven by investment and exports, thanks to an increasingly favorable business environment, less onerous regulations and a dynamic energy and mining sector”.
However, it warned that the less optimistic projection it drew up is because “growth has weakened recently and pressures on the exchange rate have illustrated persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities and political uncertainty”.
In this scenario, it stated that “a broad-based growth will depend on greater regulatory reform to strengthen internal competition and promote international trade, while expanding the supply of technical and vocational education”.
In this framework, the organization emphasized that “the moderation of spending and the increase in tax revenue, supported by the economic recovery, have improved fiscal results, but more reforms will be needed to maintain fiscal prudence and at the same time boost potential growth”.
In the same vein, it considered that “monetary policy must remain restrictive to reduce inflation in the long term” and expects that “the national currency will remain volatile due to residual political uncertainty, but the effect of depreciation on inflation seems to have weakened”.
Similarly, it expects that “the public budget will register surpluses between 2025 and 2027, despite the new spending measures driven by the legislative power and the temporary suspension of taxes on agricultural exports”.
At the same time, the OECD warned that “episodes of volatility could reappear due to low foreign exchange reserves, still high inflation and the need for new structural reforms in various political areas”.
However, it stated that “a successful continuation of the current reform momentum could generate more significant improvements than expected in productivity, competitiveness and fiscal sustainability”.
At a general level, the OECD projects a deceleration of global growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 and then expects it to “strengthen slightly to 3.1% in 2027”, indicating that “short-term activity is expected to soften as higher effective tariff rates are gradually imposed, which will affect investment and trade, amid persistent geopolitical and political uncertainty”.
Likewise, it maintained that “growth is expected to reaffirm itself again later in 2026 as the impact of tariffs fades, financial conditions improve and lower inflation supports demand, and Asian emerging economies continue to be the main contributors to global growth”.
