The renowned Argentine economist Carlos Melconian provided a detailed and pessimistic analysis of the current economic situation in Argentina, emphasizing that structural vulnerabilities persist. In an interview with Radio Rivadavia, Melconian stated that concerns about economic policy and the external front "are the same" as before, despite recent political changes. Thus, the economist argued that the underlying problems do not lie in the exchange rate itself, but in macroeconomic issues that directly impact economic activity and the population's purchasing power. Melconian refuted the idea that the economic contraction is due to a lack of exchange rate competitiveness. His number one priority is fiscal policy: after a "reset of economic policy", the public sector must "buy dollars with the fiscal surplus in pesos to pay the interest on the debt". Melconian estimated that Argentina has dollar payment deadlines for interest that require 10 trillion dollars for 2026 and 2027 alone. Only after covering this obligation, if there are any foreign currencies left, can the process of accumulating reserves begin. Regarding exchange rate policy, he criticized the inconsistency of wanting to liberalize the market while maintaining a fixed float band (for example, at $1,500 per dollar). The economist concluded: "What breaks the harmony of the foreign exchange market is the dollarization of individuals". He detailed that since the market was opened to individuals, the public has bought $32 billion, of which only 20% has returned as deposits. For Melconian, the debate on whether to fix or free the exchange rate distracts from these key fiscal and monetary components essential for economic stability. For him, the main driver of the fall in Gross Domestic Product is the "lack of demand", resulting from: the severe weakness of purchasing power at the microeconomic level and the scarcity of credit. The economist illustrated the social impact of the adjustment: "The best-off is the average private formal salary, and it is 20% below the Macri era".
