The Government, which considers reducing the economy's nominality a priority, insists it will only purchase reserves against genuine peso demand, in a scheme that avoids pressuring the exchange rate to not accelerate inflation.
The commercial framework agreement with the US, pushed after the realignment of the relationship between Javier Milei and Donald Trump, also contributed to improving expectations. The Government, for its part, bets on consolidating this scenario with reforms aimed at a 'strong peso' horizon by 2026.
The dynamics transformed notably after October 27. With rates close to 8% annually, these issuances replaced more expensive market debt and anticipate the possibility of the National Treasury's return to voluntary international credit in 2026, provided the country risk continues to recede.
The third point underpinning stability is the renewal of maturities without resorting to excessive pressure on the Central Bank. The improvement in international soybean prices (8% monthly) and wheat (9%) reinforces the trade balance and alleviates the financial account.
Although the 'fine print' remains to be seen, the understanding is viewed as a signal of strategic alignment that boosts economic integration and could facilitate future access to financing lines.
With this set of converging factors, private sector economists project a stabilized dollar in the coming months and a gradual scenario towards a 'stronger peso' during 2026, as long as fiscal order, market access, and reserve reconstruction consolidate.
Electoral support for the Government strengthened the credibility of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economy to sustain the exchange rate bands scheme, whose upper limit continues to adjust at 1% monthly.
This dynamics marks a transition: the public sector shifted from an intense sale of foreign currency to an orderly recomposition scheme, while restrictions are loosened and the door is reopened to external financing.
The fourth factor is the favorable external shock. The Treasury's dollar purchases in November, close to USD 950 million, were almost entirely destined for international organisms, which allowed avoiding abrupt changes in foreign currency deposits.
In parallel, the collapse in rates, the improvement in bonds, and the reconfiguration of the political map after the officialist victory stimulated a rebound that, in some cases, exceeded 50% in dollars in just one month.
For economic consultancies, the central unknown is no longer immediate volatility but the ability to accumulate net reserves.
In a market that had been dragging severe tensions until October, analysts and operators agree that the combination of recovering reserves, greater internal financial liquidity, corporate currency inflows, and a more favorable political climate after the officialist victory sustains the current 'exchange rate pax'.
That predictability, added to that La Libertad Avanza became the block with its own largest volume in Deputies, reduced the expectation of sharp dollar jumps and favored gradual disinflation strategies.
The second element—determinant for financial sentiment—was the entry of corporate and provincial currencies.
That process will depend on the Treasury's return to markets, the strengthening of money demand, and the continuity of the fiscal surplus.
Prices aligned below projected ceilings until May, a sign that operators rule out disruptive movements in the short term.
All quotations advanced below the floating bands' ceiling, while the perceived risk decreased rapidly.
The political factor emerges as the main explanatory element. For analysts, this external push acts as a natural support for the peso, especially in a context of political stabilization.
In futures markets, the trend became clear: contracts traded on Rofex validated the continuity of the bands regime.
After the Central Bank's massive sales between the 17th and 19th of September for over USD 1,100 million, and the Treasury's interventions assisted by an extraordinary flow from Washington, the foreign exchange market found an equilibrium point with minimal official presence.
In November, companies and governorships placed approximately USD 4,000 million in Negotiable Obligations, equivalent to 10% of gross reserves.
Buenos Aires, November 24, 2025 - Total News Agency - TNA - The marked stability of the dollar registered since the legislative elections configures one of the periods of greatest exchange rate calm of the last year.
