Buenos Aires, November 6, 2025 – Total News Agency-TNA-
Argentine country risk fell this Wednesday to 621 basis points, its lowest value in almost a year, driven by the rebound in sovereign bonds and an improvement in the perception of international investors about the country's political and economic stability.
For now, the combination of positive internal signals and external support places the country in its most favorable financial moment since the beginning of the libertarian administration, and global investors are once again paying close attention to the Argentine risk.
For stock market operators, the fall in the index translates into a reduction in costs for the entire financial system and a noticeable improvement in the valuations of Argentine assets.
Javier Milei's administration observes the phenomenon with caution, although it interprets it as an implicit endorsement of its stabilization program and the fiscal discipline maintained by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo.
In parallel, the intervention of the US Treasury for about 2,100 million dollars and the announcement of a financial swap for 20,000 million dollars acted as additional stabilizers in the foreign exchange and debt market.
The retreat in country risk is read in the markets as a sign of confidence and as a step towards the eventual recovery of international financing.
The index, prepared by J.P. Morgan, reflects the difference between the yield of US Treasury bonds and Argentine titles, and serves as a thermometer of confidence in the State's ability to pay.
The downward trend began after the mid-term legislative elections, in which the officialdom consolidated its majority, and deepened with the rally of dollar-denominated bonds, which rose up to 3.5% in the last round.
This behavior meant a drop of more than 450 points from the 1,081 units recorded in the pre-election period and left the index only 61 points away from the Milei era minimum, reached in January 2025, when it reached 560.
Financial analysts attribute the decline to a conjunction of factors: the strengthening of the Government's political position after the electoral result, the improvement in governability expectations, the continuity of fiscal adjustment, and the perception that the country could normalize its access to external credit.
An additional improvement in the 300-400 basis point range would open the door to refinance commitments and alleviate the weight of international reserves. The market, however, warns that the stability of the indicator will depend on the fulfillment of fiscal targets, the evolution of the Central Bank's reserves, and the Government's ability to sustain political agreements that support structural reforms.
Both traveled this week to the United States to hold meetings with investment funds and international banks, in search of consolidating the arrival of capital and confirming bilateral credit lines.
If the trend continues, Argentina could reduce the pressure on external payments scheduled for January and July of next year, for a total close to 8,400 million dollars.
According to J.P. Morgan and various local consultancies, Argentina would need to sustain a level below 500 basis points to regain access to credit at reasonable rates, a scenario that is considered possible towards 2026 if the trend of macroeconomic improvement continues and the reduction of the deficit is consolidated.
The impact of the new financial climate is already perceived in corporate portfolios: several companies and provinces are evaluating returning to issue debt in the international market, encouraged by the contraction of sovereign risk.
