Currency volatility intensified in the weeks leading up to the legislative elections, where La Libertad Avanza (LLA) won with 40% of the national vote, creating market uncertainty and price pressures. The consulting firm LCG calculated inflation near 2.5% for the general level, which would imply an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. According to the report, expected inflation for the next 12 months is around 37%, a reduction of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The Government is closely monitoring the index's evolution, as a higher-than-expected surge could complicate the disinflation policy promoted by the Ministry of Economy. However, the behavior of the dollar and sectoral wage negotiations could introduce new challenges in the coming months. Market analysts agree that October will be a turning point: if the official figure is below 2.5%, the Government can maintain its stability narrative; if it exceeds 2.8%, it could signal a resurgence of inflation ahead of the summer. Meanwhile, Econviews and Libertad y Progreso placed their forecasts in the upper range, between 2.4% and 2.8%, pointing to the strong impact of mass consumption and adjustments in logistics costs. Analytica, for its part, projected that the general price level will reach 2.2%, a figure practically identical to September's. Some analysts believe that the pass-through of the recent devaluation of the official exchange rate to prices has begun to be reflected in food and other daily consumer goods, which could complicate the projected slowdown for the following months. In parallel, the University of Torcuato Di Tella's Inflation Expectations Survey showed that the public expects an average increase of 3.96% for October, with a median of 3%. C&T Asesores Económicos reported an increase of around 2% in the Greater Buenos Aires area, while Equilibra estimated a rise of 2.1%, highlighting that non-seasonal food and beverages grew by 2.3%. In any case, the upcoming reports from INDEC and the Central Bank will be crucial to evaluate the consistency of the economic program in the final stretch of 2025.
> «La volatilidad cambiaria se acentuó en las semanas previas a las elecciones legislativas, donde La Libertad Avanza (LLA) se impuso con el 40% de los votos a nivel nacional, generando incertidumbre en los mercados y presiones sobre los precios».
> «La consultora LCG calculó una inflación cercana al 2,5% para el nivel general, lo que implicaría un aumento de 0,4 puntos porcentuales respecto del mes anterior».
