Driven by favorable election results for the government, reinforced financial backing from the United States, and a global context of falling interest rates, stocks and bonds advanced strongly, ending a streak of declines in a month of high currency volatility.
Merval at highs and the best month since 1992 The leading Merval ByMA index climbed 69% in pesos in October—equivalent to 64% in dollars—and posted a positive balance of nearly 10% for 2025 to date. It was the best month for local stocks since 1992, coinciding with post-election euphoria in which bank shares surged by up to 40% in both Buenos Aires and New York.
Winners of the month: banks and energy in the lead Among the stocks with the highest monthly gains were Banco Supervielle (149%), Banco Macro (110%), Edenor (110%), Grupo Galicia (108%), Metrogas (100%), and BBVA (97%). On Wall Street, ADRs replicated the momentum: Supervielle (+151%), Edenor (+117%), Grupo Galicia (+115%), and Macro (+114%).
Bonds and country risk: compression underway Fixed income accompanied the optimism with increases of up to 43% in globals and bonares, with the best performance in the 2035 (AL35), 2038 (AE38/GD38), and 2041 (AL41/GD41) lines. This was supported by a US$20 billion swap between the US Treasury and the BCRA, as well as direct peso purchases by the US Treasury, which provided liquidity and contained portfolio dollarization. Operators project a convergence of the country risk towards the 450–500 basis points zone, with additional appreciation potential, especially in the long tranches.
The City's view: reforms, governability, and prices Consulted analysts note that the increases reflect a higher probability of economic reforms and political stability. In alternatives, some managers highlight the 2027 bonopres (BPOB7, BPOC7, BPOD7) with yields of 7%–10% annually in dollars.
External catalysts: the Fed cuts and improves the headwind The 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve—with a target range of 3.75%–4%—eased the global risk premium and favored emerging market assets, adding tailwind for the local compression of rates and spreads.
For November, dollar strategies favor globals with higher duration (focusing on AE38/GD38 and GD41), while in pesos, the bias persists towards CER instruments due to further compression of real rates.
What the market is watching in November The focus now shifts to the content of the reforms (labor, tax, and penal) and the treatment of the Budget in extraordinary sessions. In stocks, preference is concentrated in energy (YPF, Vista) and net exporters, with expectations of regulatory improvements and investment.
An October of a turning point: political signals and external support BUENOS AIRES, October 31, 2025—The Argentine stock market closed October with extraordinary gains and a change in mood that reversed the negative trend of the year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq and major international indices ended October in positive territory.
The US factor: swap, peso purchases, and a political signal The final part of the month was marked by the confirmation of a US$20 billion swap between the US Treasury and the BCRA, as well as direct peso purchases by the US Treasury, which provided liquidity and contained portfolio dollarization. Officials in Washington emphasized that the scheme does not imply losses for taxpayers and that the objective is to support the financial stability of a regional ally. The continuity of external support and the roadmap with the provinces will be key to sustaining the rally. The new coordination scheme with governors and potential changes in the economic cabinet were interpreted as signals of governability.
